Characteristics Associated with Prime-Age Mortality in Eastern and Southern Africa: Evidence from Zambia and Kenya

The MSU International Development Paper series is designed to further the comparative analysis of international development activities in Africa, Latin America, Asia, and the Near East. The papers report research findings on historical, as well as contemporary, international development problems. The series includes papers on a wide range of topics, such as alternative rural development strategies; nonfarm employment and small scale industry; housing and construction; farming and marketing systems; food and nutrition policy analysis; economics of rice production in West Africa; technological change, employment, and income distribution; computer techniques for farm and marketing surveys; farming systems and food security research. The papers are aimed at teachers, researchers, policy makers, donor agencies, and international development practitioners. Selected papers will be translated into French, Spanish, or other languages. Michigan State University agrees to and does hereby grant to the United States Government a royalty-free, non-exclusive and irrevocable license throughout the world to use, duplicate, disclose, or dispose of this publication in any manner and for any purposes and to permit others to do so. The authors are grateful to many individuals for their help in providing important information for this study and reviews of earlier drafts. This study would not have been possible without the support of colleagues at Tegemeo Institute (Kenya), and the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives and the Central Statistical Organization (Zambia). The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Michigan State University, USAID, SIDA, or any other organization. iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Campaigns to prevent the spread of HIV require accurate knowledge of the characteristics of those most likely to contract the disease. Studies conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa during the 1980s generally found a positive correlation between socioeconomic characteristics such as education, income, and wealth and subsequent contraction of HIV. As the disease has progressed, the relationship between socioeconomic status and HIV contraction may have changed, although there is little evidence to support this. An emerging strand of the literature on the AIDS epidemic in Africa posits that poverty is increasingly associated with the spread of the disease. However, this conclusion is somewhat contentious, as other recent studies find mixed evidence of a poverty-AIDS connection. This study attempts to shed light on these issues by reporting findings from two linked studies on the socioeconomic characteristics of prime-age individuals (defined as ages 15 to 59) dying of disease-related causes in Zambia and Kenya. Longitudinal data from nationwide …